Lowe’s Companies has spent decades quietly earning one of the most coveted titles in the investing world: Dividend King.
That means it has raised its dividend for more than 50 consecutive years. Right now, that streak stands at 65 years and counting, per 24/7 Wall St.
But Wall Street isn’t in a celebratory mood. TD Cowen just reset its price target on the home improvement giant, citing a more cautious near-term outlook.
Here’s what investors need to know.
TD Cowen trims its price target on Lowe’s
TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko lowered his price target on Lowe’s (LOW) to $280, down from $295, according to Investing.com. The firm is keeping a “hold” rating on the stock.
The reason? Lower expectations for both revenue and profit margins heading into fiscal 2026.
The firm acknowledged that Lowe’s fourth-quarter results and full-year guidance came in largely as expected. Nothing was dramatically better or worse than consensus estimates.
Still, Rakhlenko shaved his earnings-per-share forecast for the year, which pulled the target down.
Related: Mortgage rates tick lower as the Fed trims key rate
One thing TD Cowen made clear: The investment thesis hasn’t changed. TD is still watching and waiting, specifically for the do-it-yourself customer to show meaningful signs of recovery before revisiting its rating.
That’s the crux of the issue.
Big-ticket discretionary spending by DIY customers has been stuck in neutral for the past two years.
Consumers have been reluctant to drop tens of thousands of dollars on kitchen renovations or new flooring when mortgage rates are sitting near 7% and economic uncertainty is elevated.
Lowe’s dividend data at a glance
According to data from Fiscal.ai, Lowe’s annual dividend per share has risen from $0.12 in 2006 to $4.80 in 2026, which indicates a forward yield of almost 2%.
Analysts forecast Lowe’s to improve its free cash flow from $7.7 billion in fiscal 2026 (ended in January) to $10.35 billion in fiscal 2031.
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A widening cash flow base should enable the blue-chip dividend stock to raise the annual dividend to $6.11 per share in fiscal 2031.
For income investors, Lowe’s track record as a Dividend King remains one of the more compelling long-term arguments for owning the stock.
Key dividend numbers for Lowe’s stock:
- Annual dividend per share: $4.80
- Quarterly dividend per share: $1.20
- Dividend yield: Approx. 1.90%
- Dividend payout ratio: About 30% of free cash flow
- Consecutive years of dividend increases: 65 years
- 20-year dividend growth rate: Approx. 20.2% annually
The payout ratio is worth noting. At roughly 30%, Lowe’s is only returning a little more than a third of its earnings to shareholders through dividends. That leaves plenty of cushion to keep the streak going — even if earnings dip.
The Lowe’s Pro customer is carrying the load
One bright spot TD Cowen highlighted was the professional customer segment. Checks with management and recent channel research both point to solid momentum there.
That lines up with what CEO Marvin Ellison said on the company’s February earnings call. Pro sales delivered growth again in the fourth quarter.
The company has been building out its “Pro Extended Aisle” program — essentially a digital platform that gives contractors access to a much wider product catalog, including vinyl siding, electrical wiring, and specialty building materials.
Lowe’s is also expanding its Pro sales force, adding job site delivery staging, and rolling out an AI-powered “Pro Companion” tool that helps sales associates prep for customer conversations before they happen.
Lowe’s CFO offered more detail.
For fiscal 2026, Lowe’s is guiding for total sales of $92 billion to $94 billion, with comparable sales expected to be flat to up 2%.
Is Lowe’s a good dividend stock to own?
TD Cowen’s “hold” rating for LOW stock is essentially a placeholder. The firm wants proof that DIY customers are coming back before it’s willing to turn more bullish on the stock.
That trigger is fairly specific. When shoppers start pulling the trigger again on big-ticket discretionary projects (think new appliances, bathroom remodels, and flooring upgrades), that’s when the narrative shifts.
Mortgage rates dropping sustainably below 6% could be the catalyst. That level is seen as something of a psychological unlock for homeowners who have been frozen in place by the so-called “lock-in effect.”
Given consensus price targets, Lowe’s stock trades at a 11.3% discount right now. If we adjust for dividends, cumulative returns for LOW stock investors could be closer to 13.3% over the next 12 months.
Lowe’s itself is cautiously optimistic.
- The company told investors it has the best in-stock position heading into spring in years, along with a growing loyalty program now at 30 million members.
- Members shop 50% more often and spend twice as much as non-members.
The structural case for Lowe’s is still intact. Home equity is at record levels nationally. The average U.S. home is now 44 years old and in need of work. And analysts estimate the country will need somewhere between 16 million and 19 million new homes by 2033.
The question isn’t whether home improvement spending will come back — it’s when. Until that moment arrives, TD Cowen is content to stay on the sidelines with a freshly trimmed price target of $280.
Related: Lowe’s begins layoffs in North Carolina, plans 600 job cuts
